How stratospheric warming and a +AAO index over the Antarctic are influencing grains, natural gas and soft commodities
by Jim Roemer – Meteorologist – Commodity Trading Advisor – Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict – Publisher, Weather Wealth & Climatelligence
– Focus on the Seasonals and Sentiment – Weekend Overview – January 20-22
Watch the video (Click this link > > > H E R E )
In the video, I discuss the CLIMATIC VARIABLES that are likely to cause these commodity-specific events:
- snows in Kansas, bringing needed moisture to draught-stricken soil
- important rains for Argentina’s corn and soybean crops
- a cold February to many Midwest and (perhaps) eastern U.S. natural gas consumption areas.
There are additional global teleconnections (other than just a weak La Niña) influencing weather patterns and commodity prices.
These phenomena are:
- 1) Stratospheric warming over the Arctic that will help send the polar vortex back south by February;
- 2) A positive AAO (Antarctic Oscillation Index) that will help bring rains to Argentina and southern Brazil within the next few days, but also portends a potential return to February dryness;
- 3) Important snows to Kansas wheat later this week and a potential improvement in the Plains drought, come spring.
A Note from our Editor
Our latest issue of Jim Roemer’s Weather Wealth newsletter features the Best Weather Spider which derives an overall score of market sentiment, by ranking seven separate perspectives:
- 1) Temperature Index
- 2) Moisture Index
- 3) Global Crop (for Agricultural Products) or Global Weather-Demand (for Energy)
- 4) Chart Pattern Recognition and other Technical Analytics
- 5) Seasonality
- 6) Economics
- 7) Anti-Herd Mentality
For example, see the Best Weather Spiders below for corn and coffee.
- Will the easing in La Niña result in a much more bearish longer-term Spider for corn as we head into the North American spring and summer?
- Will we turn bullish natural gas based on our forecast for a cold mid-winter and if so, how do you implement various ETF, futures, and options strategies?
- Please feel free to learn about Jim Roemer, our track record, and how we use weather to help traders around the world – J.S. Mathews, Editor
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Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and the Best Weather Team
Weather Wealth & Climatelligence
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. The Weather Wealth blog, including both short-term and long-term forecasts and trading ideas, as well as Climatelligence, his monthly newsletter can be accessed at https://www.bestweatherinc.com/
He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
On the date of publication, Jim Roemer did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.