- The Dow soared on Friday and stocks rallied broadly as rate-cut bets intensified.
- New data showed cooling consumer inflation and only a mild increase in producer prices.
- The small-cap Russell 2000 jumped for the second day, rising more than 1% after adding 4% on Thursday.
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Stocks jumped to end the week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallying more than 200 points to close above 40,000 for the first time since mid-May.
Investors cheered the broadening of a 2024 stock-market rally that has been largely concentrated with mega-cap tech names associated with the AI trade.
Every sector of the S&P 500 rose on Friday, with 90% of the names in the index posting gains. Small-caps also jumped for the second day in a row, as the Russell 2000 saw a 1% return after surging 4% on Thursday.
Behind the rally in encouraging data that’s paving the way for a rate cut in September. Consumer prices rose less than expected last month, while wholesale inflation was hotter, though only slightly and not enough to derail a coming rate cut, market pros said Friday.
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According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see nearly 90% odds the Federal Reserve dials back interest rates at the September FOMC meeting.
Odds of a jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points at the December meeting have also risen, with traders placing the strongest odds on the fed funds rate dropping to 4.50%-4.75% at the final meeting of the year.
Here’s where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Friday:
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Bond yields have tumbled as the market adjusts to the favorable data and fresh outlooks for rates. The rate-sensitive two-year Treasury note has dropped by about 14 basis points in a week and the 10-year bond is down over eight basis points in that time. The 10-year fell to 4.182% on Friday.
As the rate outlook firms up, investors see greater potential for stocks that were hampered by tighter Fed policy to be able to gain, soothing some fears of heavy market concentration among the likes of Nvidia and other tech stalwarts.
Here’s what else happened today:
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In commodities, bonds, and crypto:
- Oil futures dipped. West Texas Intermediate crude edged down 0.5% to $82.23 a barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was down 0.4% to $85.07 a barrel.
- Gold slipped to $2,418 per ounce.
- The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.18%.
- Bitcoin was up 0.5% to trade at $57,836.