Stock market today: US futures hold steady near records with Fed rate cut baked in

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US stocks inched higher on Tuesday, as investors assessed another batch of big bank earnings amid growing conviction an interest-rate cut is near.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) traded little changed after the blue-chip index topped 40,000 to notch an all-time closing high. Futures on the S&P 500 (ES=F) were up 0.1%, while those on the tech-laden Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) edged up 0.2% on the heels of their own daily wins.

Earnings season picked up pace before the bell, with Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) the latest to report. BofA quarterly profit fell but beat estimates, while MS profit jumped, both offering signs of an investment banking revival. Results from Morgan Stanley (MS), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and UnitedHealth (UNH) are also on Tuesday’s docket.

More broadly, stocks are holding onto gains after Jerome Powell signaled the Federal Reserve is gearing up to start lowering rates soon, given recent good inflation prints. Retail sales data on Tuesday will be scoured for clues to price pressures.

The Fed chair’s remarks boosted faith in a September cut — a prospect that has already wakened wider bullishness for stocks beyond techs.

But Powell took pains not to be drawn on timing. Some lawmakers have warned a Fed pivot before November’s presidential election could be seen as a partisan move.

At the same time, political matters continued to preoccupy a market betting that former President Donald Trump is an even clearer front-runner for the White House after he survived a shooting over the weekend. The Republican candidate’s pick of Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate is seen as strengthening his chances.

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  • The high expectations on Netflix

    Expectations on Netflix (NFLX) earnings later this week are on the high side, to say they very least. It makes sense as the company’s business has clearly kicked into a new gear the past two quarters.

    Even still, you have to wonder if expectations are TOO high and no matter what Netflix reports it will be seen as a letdown.

    Example of what I am talking about is Jefferies analyst James Heaney with this line in his earnings preview report this morning:

    “We are raising our subscriber estimate for 2Q24 by ~18% to 5.8M net adds vs 4.9M previously and our fiscal year estimates to 28.3M.”